Bitcoin is sitting on a technical ledge that might resolve whether or not worth makes a brand new all-time excessive or unwinds sharply into the $80,000s, based on veteran dealer Josh Olszewicz (CarpeNoctom). “BTC complicated iHS brewing within the megaphone,” he posted on October 30, 2025, including in a follow-up: “Additionally this brewing, not nice.”
The Bullish Case For Bitcoin
Olszewicz is monitoring two constructions. The primary, on the 6-hour timeframe, exhibits BTC buying and selling inside a broadening “megaphone” sample that has contained worth since July. The megaphone is outlined by rising dotted resistance traces above and falling dotted assist traces under. The higher boundary extends by means of roughly $126,000 to $128,000. The decrease boundary widens down towards $105,400 and $103,800.
Inside that vary, Bitcoin put in a pointy spike above $126,000 in early October, then bought off violently, dropping under $106,000s with a wick towards roughly $102,000. That bounce did not get well the prior vary. As a substitute, worth stalled below a horizontal resistance shelf round $116,000–$117,000. Olszewicz sketches a yellow projected path that means a short-term bounce from slightly below $111,000 again in direction of $116,000. That path suggests tried aid, not confirmed bullish continuation.
Associated Studying
Provided that Bitcoin can reclaim the $116,000–$117,000 zone does a transfer towards the higher resistance band come again into play. In that situation, worth might prolong towards $128,000, print a brand new all-time excessive, and doubtlessly restart a broader restoration section.
The Bearish Case For Bitcoin
The second chart is the place the draw back threat accelerates. On the 1-day timeframe, Olszewicz maps a head-and-shoulders high with a rising neckline. The left shoulder topped within the $118,000 space, the top reached roughly $126,200, and the correct shoulder once more failed close to $116,000. The neckline is drawn as an ascending dotted assist line that now sits within the $105,000–$106,000 zone. He highlights $107,316.81 as the important thing breakdown stage.
If that neckline breaks decisively, the chart applies a normal measured transfer. The gap from the top all the way down to the neckline is projected decrease. Olszewicz plots that extension right into a teal goal zone and marks intermediate and full targets at $93,963.81 (the 1.618 extension) and $87,652.27 (the two.0 extension). In different phrases, a clear every day breakdown by means of $107,316 opens a path first towards the mid-$90,000s after which towards roughly $87,600.
Associated Studying
Above spot, resistance stays layered. The 0.5 retracement of the prior impulse is labeled at $115,486, and the 1.0 retracement — successfully the earlier swing excessive — is marked at $124,477.
Structurally, Bitcoin is now boxed between provide within the $116,000 area and that neckline helps round $105,000–$106,000. Olszewicz’s message is that bulls should still be attempting to kind a “complicated inverse head-and-shoulders within the megaphone,” however the lively every day head-and-shoulders high is “not nice.” A decisive lack of the neckline might affirm the bearish construction and put $93,963.81 and $87,652.27 on the desk.
At press time, BTC traded at $110,096.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
