As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to commerce beneath the pivotal $90,000 mark with no indicators of restoration, the prospect of a bear market is turning into more and more related. Analyst Woominkyu from CryptoQuant has shared insights suggesting that the present market dynamics point out a transition somewhat than only a momentary pullback.
May Bitcoin Be Shifting Into A Bear Part?
In a report launched not too long ago, Woominkyu examined the Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Indicator (BCMI), noting that its return to the 0.5 zone on October 21 was interpreted as a cooling section, somewhat than indicative of a market peak.
Within the weeks following this statement, Bitcoin’s worth has seen a noticeable decline alongside an identical drop in BCMI, suggesting that the market isn’t solely experiencing a cooling interval however has additionally reset when it comes to worth and on-chain momentum.
Traditionally, vital cycle bottoms for Bitcoin in 2019 and 2023 occurred when BCMI ranges fell between the 0.25 and 0.35 vary. These ranges are sometimes related to full sentiment compression and a structural reset throughout the market.
At present, whereas BCMI stays beneath equilibrium as seen within the chart above, and it’s nonetheless above the historic backside zones. This knowledge means that Bitcoin could also be shifting right into a bear section somewhat than recovering from a easy pullback.
In response to Woominkyu, a extra steady backside might solely materialize if BCMI revisits ranges seen through the earlier cycles from 2019 to 2023.
Bear Market Circumstances
In a separate evaluation, CryptoQuant indicated that demand for Bitcoin has sharply declined, reinforcing the thought of a bear market. The report pointed to the numerous drop in Bitcoin demand development that has occurred since early October 2025.
Furthermore, the report highlights that institutional and large-holder demand is contracting as an alternative of increasing. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have transformed into web sellers through the fourth quarter of 2025, offloading roughly 24,000 BTC.
Moreover, the variety of addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, which usually signify ETFs and treasury companies, can be growing at a fee beneath the development, reflecting the demand deterioration that preceded the bear market of 2022.
The situation of the derivatives markets additional corroborates the weakening urge for food for danger. Funding charges in perpetual futures have dropped to their lowest ranges since December 2023.
Traditionally, such declines in funding charges point out a diminished willingness to keep up lengthy positions, a phenomenon generally related to bear market circumstances somewhat than bullish tendencies.
Technical evaluation additionally reveals the deterioration of Bitcoin’s worth construction, with the cryptocurrency falling beneath its 365-day transferring common—an important long-term help degree that has traditionally delineated bull and bear markets.
Wanting forward, historic knowledge means that Bitcoin’s bear market bottoms sometimes align with its realized worth, at the moment estimated round $56,000. This means a possible drawdown of roughly 55% from the current all-time excessive.
Intermediate help is anticipated across the $70,000 degree, suggesting a comparatively shallow bear market in comparison with earlier cycles.
On the time of writing, BTC was buying and selling at $87,635. This represents year-to-date losses of 10%, in addition to a 30.5% hole in comparison with all-time highs of simply above $126,000.
Featured picture from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
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