Polymarket Banned in Portugal, Hungary as Prediction Market Pushback Grows – Decrypt

Polymarket has kicked off 2026 going through a brand new slew of regulatory actions from jurisdictions in Europe and the U.S., even because it edges its approach again into the American market. 

On Friday, each the Hungarian Supervisory Authority for Regulated Actions and the Portuguese Gaming Regulatory Authority issued bans towards the prediction market, accusing it of unlawful playing exercise.  

“The web site will not be approved to supply betting in Portugal, and below nationwide regulation, betting on political occasions or happenings, whether or not nationwide or worldwide, will not be permitted,” Portuguese regulators informed native outlet Rádio Renascença.

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The identical day, the Nevada Gaming Management Board filed a civil enforcement motion towards Polymarket, asking the courtroom “for a declaration and injunction to cease Polymarket from providing unlicensed wagering.” Its actions observe a related one in Tennessee earlier this month, when the state’s sports activities betting regulator ordered Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com to close down their sports activities prediction markets and refund wagers. 

Prediction markets have exploded in recognition during the last two years, notably forward of the U.S. presidential election in 2024. The markets, together with prime gamers Polymarket and its important competitor, Kalshi, are seeing mixed volumes of over $13.5 billion month-to-month and processing over 43 million transactions, in accordance with a November 2025 report by Dune and Keyrock. (Disclaimer: Decrypt’s mum or dad firm Dastan operates prediction market platform Myriad.)

The controversy surrounding them hinges on the declare by prediction markets that they aren’t playing platforms. In April, the CEO of Kalshi—which can also be going through a category motion lawsuit within the Southern District of New York, filed final week, which contends it operates as an “unlawful and unlicensed sports activities ebook”—Tarek Mansour informed Axios that prediction markets provide “occasions contracts,” not bets.

“I simply do not actually know what this has to do with playing. If we’re playing, then I feel you are principally calling the complete monetary market playing,” he stated on the time, describing the market as “an open monetary market” the place folks commerce towards one another as a substitute of betting towards a sportsbook.

However regulators beg to vary.

Additional compounding the problem is that in lots of locations, betting on the end result of political occasions is unlawful—together with in Portugal and in addition Taiwan, the place Polymarket customers have been investigated for betting on the end result of the latest presidential elections. 

Issues have additionally been raised concerning the extent of insider buying and selling on prediction markets. Earlier this month, a Polymarket person revamped $436,000 after appropriately betting that former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro can be faraway from energy earlier than January 31. The wager was made simply hours earlier than U.S. forces eliminated him, resulting in accusations the person had advance data of what was going to occur.

It prompted U.S. Consultant Ritchie Torres (D-NY) to draft a invoice prohibiting federal workers from utilizing prediction markets when in possession of related insider data.

That stated, on the Federal degree, there was a thaw in attitudes in direction of prediction markets in step with Trump’s favorable stance in direction of crypto. In November, the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee authorized the return of Polymarket to the U.S. market. It was beforehand banned and fined $1.4 million in 2022 for regulatory compliance failures. 

Kevin de Patoul, CEO of Keyrock, informed Decrypt that prediction markets are an enchanting check case for blockchain’s core promise of turning collective intelligence into tradable, verifiable knowledge.

“However they’re additionally exhibiting us how fragile that may be when incentives or visibility are misaligned,” he stated. “It’s evident there’s a necessity for clearer boundaries between participation, governance, and affect. Markets constructed on trustless techniques nonetheless want trusted frameworks in the event that they’re going to tell something significant past hypothesis.”

“The subsequent section will depend upon who can design markets that protect open entry whereas embedding transparency and compliance by design,” de Patoul added. “That’s how I see prediction markets evolve from leisure to dependable, institutional-grade alerts.”

Whether or not Polymarket will probably be allowed again into jurisdictions like Portugal and Hungary is unclear. The ban in Hungary, as an illustration, is momentary. In a weblog, regulation agency CMS stated that in idea, a number of outcomes stay potential, together with the lifting of the momentary block. Nonetheless, enforcement traits counsel that the authority might finally take a firmer place. 

“Additional regulatory measures could also be utilized, relying on the authority’s ultimate evaluation of Polymarket’s actions,” its Budapest-based attorneys wrote. “The potential for the block being eliminated can’t be completely excluded at this stage.”

Decrypt reached out to Polymarket for touch upon the bans, however didn’t instantly obtain a response.