Key Takeaways:
Kalshi posted $5.42B in April 2026 taker quantity, surpassing Polymarket’s $1.99B for the primary time. Polymarket collected $29.22M in April charges regardless of trailing Kalshi in quantity, signaling higher-value contracts. Prediction market open curiosity hit $1.11B on Might 1, 2026, with Kalshi and Polymarket holding 98% of it.
Kalshi Holds $630M in Open Curiosity as Sector-Extensive OI Tops $1.1B on the Begin of Might
Basically, prediction markets are platforms the place contributors purchase and promote contracts tied to the result of future occasions, from elections and sports activities to crypto costs and financial indicators. Contract costs replicate the group’s collective likelihood estimate of an end result, settling at $1 if appropriate or $0 if not.
The mannequin has roots stretching again to Nineteenth-century election betting on Wall Avenue, and gained educational credibility in 1988 when College of Iowa professors launched the Iowa Digital Markets to check whether or not crowd-sourced contract costs might outforecast conventional polls. It was realized that they may.
Business platforms adopted, with Intrade drawing mainstream consideration within the 2000s earlier than U.S. authorized stress shut it down. Augur introduced the idea to blockchain within the 2010s, although the platform by no means gained significant traction. The actual inflection got here within the 2020s. Polymarket launched in 2020, constructed on Polygon and settled in USDC.
The subsequent 12 months, Kalshi obtained CFTC approval as a Designated Contract Market in 2021, turning into the primary federally regulated prediction trade in U.S. historical past. The 2024 U.S. presidential election pushed each platforms into mainstream protection and drove billions in month-to-month quantity. Whole 2025 trade quantity exceeded $63 billion, and month-to-month figures peaked close to $25.7 billion in March 2026 earlier than April settled at $8.6 billion in taker phrases.
Dune Analytics’ knowledge from consumer @datadashboards, signifies that Kalshi generated $5.42 billion in taker quantity final month, giving it a transparent lead over Polymarket’s $1.99 billion. The hole between the 2 platforms has widened significantly since late 2025, when the pair traded nearer to parity. Predict.enjoyable ranked third with $579.2 million in April taker quantity, adopted by Opinion at $376.2 million and Limitless at $205 million. All different platforms mixed accounted for roughly $12.2 million.
Month-to-month notional quantity throughout the sector reached $29.8 billion in April, the Dune dashboard reveals. Kalshi led that metric as effectively, logging $14.8 billion. Polymarket posted $9 billion in notional phrases, with its separate Polymarket U.S. product contributing a further $1.26 billion after the platform re-entered the American market legally in late 2025 by way of the QCEX acquisition.
Prediction market transaction quantity highlights a wholly completely different story. Polymarket processed 87.4 million transactions in April in comparison with Kalshi’s 94.4 million. The 2 platforms collectively accounted for the overwhelming share of the sector’s 184.3 million whole month-to-month transactions.
Consumer counts remained Polymarket‘s clearest benefit. The platform drew 678,342 distinctive customers in April, greater than eight instances Kalshi’s implied consumer base. Limitless adopted at 71,203 customers, with predict.enjoyable at 18,553 and Opinion at 3,423.
Open curiosity throughout the sector stood at $1.11 billion as of Might 1, 2026. Kalshi held $630.7 million of that whole whereas Polymarket carried $449.9 million. Predict.enjoyable, Opinion, and Limitless every held effectively underneath $15 million in open positions.
Sector Income
Month-to-month charges generated throughout the sector reached $31.15 million in April. Polymarket collected $29.22 million of that whole, a determine primarily based on decision worth and mergeable quantities. Limitless adopted at $1.51 million, with Predict and Opinion producing $260,000 and $154,000 respectively.
The price figures point out that Polymarket, regardless of trailing Kalshi in taker quantity, continues to extract a disproportionate share of sector income. Its merchants seem to put higher-value contracts on common, a sample in line with its world consumer base and deep liquidity on high-profile markets.
April’s numbers lengthen a progress development that started accelerating in late 2024. Whole month-to-month taker quantity sat under $500 million as just lately as mid-2024, that means the sector has grown greater than 17-fold in underneath two years. Kalshi and Polymarket now management an estimated 85% to 95% of whole prediction market trade quantity, with educational platforms like PredictIt and the Iowa Digital Markets working at a fraction of that scale.
