Key Takeaways
McGregor risked $100,000 on Argentina successful 3-2 for a possible $3.6 million return.Kalshi gave Spain 58.2% odds as its World Cup market topped $1.4 billion in quantity.Drake added $1.5 million on Argentina earlier than the July 19 closing towards Spain.
The previous UFC champion shared the exact-score wager via 1xBet forward of the three p.m. EDT kickoff on Sunday, July 19. The wager should hit inside regulation time, which means Argentina should lead 3-2 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, no matter what occurs in additional time or a penalty shootout.
McGregor defined that the wager was impressed by “some man on the web,” referring to a July 11, 2021, publish that declared: “Argentina simply beat Spain on the 2026 World Cup closing, 3-2.” The dormant prediction resurfaced after each nations reached the ultimate, turning an outdated social media publish into one of many match’s most outstanding betting narratives.
A $3.6 Million Payday Hangs on One Actual Rating
At odds close to 36.00, McGregor’s $100,000 stake may return roughly $3.6 million if the exact end result materializes. Some other rating, together with an Argentina victory by a special margin, would end in a loss.
The slim situations separate McGregor’s wager from a standard wager on Argentina to elevate the trophy. Spain and Argentina may end regulation tied, with Argentina successful in additional time or on penalties, and McGregor’s ticket would nonetheless fail.
McGregor known as Argentina “probably the most mispriced line” on the board, however the wager seems to lean as closely on the viral prediction as on conventional match evaluation. Actual-score contracts carry lengthy odds as a result of bettors should appropriately establish the winner and the ultimate regulation rating.
Prediction Markets Give Spain the Edge
The broader market entered Sunday favoring Spain. Kalshi merchants assigned Spain a 58.2% likelihood of successful the World Cup, in contrast with 42% for Argentina, throughout a market reporting greater than $1.4 billion in buying and selling quantity.
Kalshi’s regulation-time contracts positioned Spain’s probability of successful inside 90 minutes at 43%, a draw at 32% and Argentina’s probability at 27%. The platform additionally priced the chance of greater than 2.5 match objectives at 42%, indicating merchants usually anticipated a tighter or lower-scoring contest than McGregor’s five-goal prediction.
Polymarket mirrored comparable expectations shortly earlier than kickoff. Spain traded close to a 59% probability of advancing as champion, whereas Argentina stood close to 41%. Its regulation-time moneyline priced Spain at roughly 42.75%, a draw at 31.75% and Argentina at 26.75%.
These figures make McGregor’s prediction a two-part problem. Argentina should overcome the market favourite, and the match should produce precisely 5 objectives within the required 3-2 sequence.
Drake Piles $1.5 Million Onto Argentina
McGregor will not be the one superstar inserting a serious wager on Lionel Messi and Argentina. Canadian rapper Drake staked $1.5 million via Stake on Argentina successful the ultimate in regulation or additional time, with a possible payout exceeding $5 million.
Drake’s wager carries broader successful situations as a result of it doesn’t require a selected rating. Nonetheless, his public wagering historical past has generated the recurring “Drake curse” meme, which hyperlinks his choices to subsequent defeats.
Collectively, the 2 wagers place $1.6 million of publicly disclosed superstar cash behind Argentina. Their social media posts have additionally expanded consideration past conventional sports activities betting audiences, drawing informal observers into prediction markets, exact-score props, and match-outcome contracts.
McGregor Has Cashed Main Soccer Bets Earlier than
McGregor’s willingness to again Argentina is constant together with his latest match betting document. He wagered €83,500 on Spain to win Euro 2024 at roughly 11-to-1 odds, gathering a return exceeding €1 million after Spain captured the title.
He additionally positioned a considerable wager on Argentina to win the 2024 Copa América. Argentina defeated Colombia 1-0 within the closing, giving McGregor one other broadly publicized soccer betting victory.
Not each high-profile choice has landed. McGregor additionally backed Cristiano Ronaldo to win the Euro 2024 Golden Boot, a wager that failed when Ronaldo didn’t end because the match’s main scorer. Studies differed considerably on the dimensions of that stake, illustrating the problem of verifying each superstar betting declare.
McGregor’s $100,000 ticket will likely be settled inside hours. A 3-2 Argentina victory would flip a forgotten 2021 publish right into a multimillion-dollar prophecy. Each different regulation-time rating would go away it as one other viral prediction that got here shut, or by no means got here shut in any respect.
In the meantime, dilemma, the X account that made the World Cup prediction in 2021, posted immediately and stated:
“…immediately is the day.”
Whereas his authentic prediction has garnered 300,000 likes, his newest “immediately is the day” publish has gathered round 75,000 likes on the time of writing.
